As Chaves de São Bento
A quem serão entregues as chaves da Casa Branca no dia 20 de Janeiro de 2009? E as de São Bento, daqui a um ano e meio?
“The Keys to the White House” são um sistema de previsão histórico criadao pelo Prof. Allan J. Lichtman, que olha retrospectivamente para o voto popular de cada eleição americana desde 1960. Partem do pressuposto que o resultado da eleição presidencial resulta sobretudo da performance do partido incumbente. Segundo Lichtman, “politics as usual by the challenging candidate will have no impact on results”.
Em The Keys to the White House (2005) Lichtman explica a génese das Chaves: “ I first developed the Keys system in 1981, in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a world renowned authority on the mathematics of prediction models. The system shows that it is possible to predict well in advance the outcomes of presidential elections from indicators that primarily track the performance and strength of the party holding the White House. Through the application of pattern recognition methodology to data for American presidential elections from 1860 (the first election with a four-year record of competition between Republicans and Democrats) we developed 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor reelection of the incumbent party.”
Se quiser saber quem, no próximo dia 20 de Janeiro, vai tomar posse como 44º Presidente dos EUA, só tem de encontrar “The 13 Keys To The White House”
As Chaves são afirmações que favorecem a reeleição do partido que ocupa a Casa Branca. Assim, se cinco ou menos destas afirmações em baixo forem falsas, o Partido Republicano (John McCain) vai ganhar. Se seis ou mais forem falsas, o candidato democrata Barack Obama será o próximo Presidente.
Aqui estão as “chaves” para a Casa Branca. Leia e faça as contas.
KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Em The Keys to the White House (2005) Lichtman explica a génese das Chaves: “ I first developed the Keys system in 1981, in collaboration with Vladimir Keilis-Borok, a world renowned authority on the mathematics of prediction models. The system shows that it is possible to predict well in advance the outcomes of presidential elections from indicators that primarily track the performance and strength of the party holding the White House. Through the application of pattern recognition methodology to data for American presidential elections from 1860 (the first election with a four-year record of competition between Republicans and Democrats) we developed 13 diagnostic questions that are stated as propositions that favor reelection of the incumbent party.”
Se quiser saber quem, no próximo dia 20 de Janeiro, vai tomar posse como 44º Presidente dos EUA, só tem de encontrar “The 13 Keys To The White House”
As Chaves são afirmações que favorecem a reeleição do partido que ocupa a Casa Branca. Assim, se cinco ou menos destas afirmações em baixo forem falsas, o Partido Republicano (John McCain) vai ganhar. Se seis ou mais forem falsas, o candidato democrata Barack Obama será o próximo Presidente.
Aqui estão as “chaves” para a Casa Branca. Leia e faça as contas.
KEY 1 (Party Mandate): After the midterm elections, the incumbent party holds more seats in the U.S. House of Representatives than it did after the previous midterm elections.
KEY 2 (Contest): There is no serious contest for the incumbent-party nomination.
KEY 3 (Incumbency): The incumbent-party candidate is the sitting president.
KEY 4 (Third party): There is no significant third-party or independent campaign.
KEY 5 (Short-term economy): The economy is not in recession during the election campaign.
KEY 6 (Long-term economy): Real per-capita economic growth during the term equals or exceeds mean growth during the previous two terms.
KEY 7 (Policy change): The incumbent administration effects major changes in national policy.
KEY 8 (Social unrest): There is no sustained social unrest during the term.
KEY 9 (Scandal): The incumbent administration is untainted by major scandal.
KEY 10 (Foreign/military failure): The incumbent administration suffers no major failure in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 11 (Foreign/military success): The incumbent administration achieves a major success in foreign or military affairs.
KEY 12 (Incumbent charisma): The incumbent-party candidate is charismatic or a national hero.
KEY 13 (Challenger charisma): The challenging-party candidate is not charismatic or a national hero.
Luchtman refere oito respostas negativas, pelo que esta previsão aponta para a vitória do candidato democrata.
Agora que "já sabe" quem vai ganhar o lugar mais poderoso do mundo, a questão que se coloca é: que lições podemos tirar para outros Países? Responde Allan J. Lichtman “Although the Keys cannot be mechanically applied to other political systems, the big lessons of the Keys have worldwide implications: that leaders who gain power in democratic societies, should focus on governance, not politics. As democracy inevitably spreads across the globe, world leaders should take heed that those who serve their people well will likely succeed politically in free and fair elections. Those who fail the people will likely fail at the polls as well”
Em suma: a qualidade do governo incumbente (e a percepção sobre a mesma) é a grande Chave. Tudo o resto (“politics”, campanhas, etc), são detalhes importantes se o resultado das “chaves” não for inequívo. Já se intuia, agora parece haver certeza científica - pelo menos nos EUA. Resta-nos esperar que o Pedro Magalhães (que analisa no seu excelente blogue este e outros métodos de previsão) adapte estas chaves para Portugal. Ao rigor das sondagens da Católica, somar-se-ia a análise matemática da reconhecida e provervial sabedoria dos portugueses, expressa nas urnas, desde 1976.
José Socrates ou Manuela Ferreira Leite: quem vai deter as chaves de São Bento daqui a um ano e meio?
4 comentários:
Diogo,
Se as "keys" forem as mesmas, palpita-me que as "chaves" não mudam de mão.
As "keys" têm o mérito de mostrar que os eleitores são racionais e que baseiam a sua avaliação no desempenho do partido incumbente. Ao longo da nossa história democrática, os portugueses votaram na mudança sempre que avaliaram negativamente a governação. Nas próximas eleições, o impacto da crise económica (chave 5) e instabilidade social (chave 8), podem criar um quadro de mudança, caso a alternativa saiba i) inspirar confiança; ii) conquistar a imaginação das pessoas; iii) construir "momentum" em torno de uma mudança. Se, por exemplo, usarmos as chaves no caso actual do Reino Unido, fica claro que o Labour vai perder: Sete das 13 chaves (a 2, a 5, a 6, a 8, a 9, a 11 e a 12) são falsas. Os trabalhistas já não a tempo de subsituir Brown e Cameron está a fazer o seu caminho: conhecem-se os membros do seu futuro governo, há uma nova narrativa em construção e a garantia de uma mudança centrista, sem rupturas. Há um ano, as chavas 5, 8 e 9 eram verdadeiras e tudo apontava para uma vitória trabalhista. Conclusão: um ano é uma eternidade em política.
Ainda a propósito das "keys" no Reino Unido, acabo de ler no Independent de hoje o seguinte artigo do editor de politica,
Andrew Grice:
"This is the least popular Labour government ever"
"Gordon Brown now leads the most unpopular Labour government in history, according to a new "poll of polls" for The Independent.
The public approval ratings of his administration have sunk below the worst achieved during Labour's darkest days in power in the 1960s and 1970s, when the governments led by Harold Wilson and James Callaghan were engulfed by economic crises.
The figures will alarm already despondent Labour MPs because they call into question the Brown camp's claims that the Prime Minister can mount a successful political fightback if he steers the country through the current economic storm. Aides hope that he would then get the credit for enabling Britain to emerge from the global problems in a stronger position than its rivals because of his record during his10 years as chancellor.
John Curtice, professor of politics at Strathclyde University, who compiled the "poll of polls", said: "It is probably safe to say that Labour is now in a larger electoral hole than any previous Labour government, and that only John Major's Tory government ever had even less polling support. So much for New Labour's claim that it would avoid any repeat of Labour's record in the 1970s."
Only 17 per cent of people now approve of the Brown government's record, while 70 per cent disapprove. The low point for Jim Callaghan came in December 1976, when the Cabinet agreed huge public spending cuts in return for a bail-out by the International Monetary Fund.
At the time, 18 per cent approved of the government and 64 per cent disapproved. The Wilson administration had the same ratings at its nadir in December 1968, during a wave of strikes which led to an ill-fated attempt to curb the power of the trade unions.
The only crumb of comfort for Mr Brown is that his government is not the most unpopular of all time. According to Professor Curtice, its ratings are now as bad as Margaret Thatcher's shortly before she was ousted by her own party in 1990. But John Major holds the unwanted record: only 9 per cent approved of his Government and 84 per cent disapproved.
Mr Brown's personal ratings have also dropped to a new low. Only 22 per cent of people are satisfied with him, with 70 per cent dissatisfied. Tony Blair's low point was a score of 25 per cent satisfied and 68 per cent dissatisfied.
The Prime Minister's popularity rating is worse than those of Harold Wilson and James Callaghan, almost as poor as Baroness Thatcher's in 1990 and not much better than Mr Major's. The Independent's weighted average of the polls taken in June puts the Tories on 45 per cent (up two points on the previous month), Labour on 26 per cent (down two points), and the Liberal Democrats unchanged on 18 per cent.
These figures would give David Cameron's party 409 seats, with Labour on 182 – fewer than the 209 it won under Michael Foot in 1983 – the Liberal Democrats 29 and other parties 30."
Mesmo sem "poll of polls", I guess that this is not the least popular PS government ever. Ou seja, se não for a eternidade do ano que vem, chaves a mudar de mão só mesmo no Areeiro.
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